The Curve: What's comes next could be complicated
Experts fear a fourth wave while hoping for herd immunity on the horizon
Welcome back to The Curve!
A lot of news happened over the weekend so let’s get right to it.
⏲ The latest
A look at the picture in Ohio: 1,268 new cases, 60 additional deaths on Sunday
And here’s what things are like across the country: Latest case count in the U.S.
Optimism replaces anxiety in COVID-19 wards as cases plummet
For a story for The Columbus Dispatch, I caught up with some frontline health care workers I spoke to in the midst of the winter surge of coronavirus hospitalizations. With hospitalizations dropping, two nurses and a doctor told me they’re breathing a cautious sigh of relief.
Dr. Anthony Fauci says easing restrictions right now 'is really risky'
With new cases down, many states are looking toward reopening following winter’s siege of COVID-19. But, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the top doc at the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases warned against it this weekend, report John Bacon and Jordan Culver for USA Today. Experts have said a quick easing of restriction could result in yet another wave of infections.
FDA authorizes Johnson & Johnson's one-dose COVID vaccine
The Food and Drug Administration approved a third COVID-19 vaccine for emergency use, this one from Johnson & Johnson, reports Karen Weintraub and Jordan Culver for USA Today. The third shot authorized in less than a year could be a game-changer as it requires just one jab instead of two like the vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna.
💉 The road to herd immunity
While it’s unclear just how many vaccinations or infections it will take to get to herd immunity, many experts predict the magic number is somewhere north of 70%. I’ve gotten many questions over the last several weeks for what data I look at for this, so here’s a few options.
Ohio’s COVID-19 vaccine dashboard
This is updated every day at 2 p.m. It shows the change in first doses administered over the previous day and what percentage of Ohio’s 11.7 million residents have received at least one shot. It also provides a county-by-county breakdown.
Bloomberg’s nationwide vaccination tracker
This tool updates daily and provides a breakdown of the vaccines administered in each U.S. state. It also shows what percentage of shots that have been distributed have actually been administered.
University of Washington projections
This tool from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation estimates everything from new COVID-19 deaths to hospital usage over the next several months. The university’s model also includes how much a difference masking and social distancing could make if observed for a long period of time.
NYT Herd immunity estimator
This awesome interactive story let’s readers calculate when the U.S. might reach heard immunity, which would allow much of the country to return to some sense of normalcy. The tool lets users calculate the timing of immunity based on the vaccine rollout and the rate of immunity generated by infections.
📰 Good reads
Columbus health leader fights the pandemic and racial disparities
My colleague Allison Ward at The Columbus Dispatch wrote this fascinating profile of Columbus Public Health Commissioner Dr. Mysheika Roberts. In the story, Roberts says she feels compelled as a Black woman to do more to fight and bring to light many of the racial disparities highlighted by the coronavirus pandemic.
7 chances to keep up the good work before herd immunity sets in
In this story for health news website STAT two researchers for New York University highlight a variety of ways Americans can help stave off another coronavirus surge. Several events, including the NCAA basketball tournament in Indianapolis, could become superspreader events if they are not handled carefully.
Should Olympians be able to jump the vaccine line?
Some countries are prioritizing Olympic athletes for COVID-19 vaccinations, writes sports reporter Andrew Keh for The New York Times. Others nations have said athletes will wait their turn in line. The ongoing vaccine rollout is likely to determine whether the Tokyo Olympic Games go on and what they look like after being delayed from the summer of 2020 due to the pandemic.